Lets discuss Omicron and the virulence transmission trade off.
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00:00 Viruses and parasites evolve to become less virulent as they infect more hosts, according to the decades old Law of Declining Virulence.
01:20 Omicron: Physicians in South Africa reported only 4 or 5 cases with mild course of illness, with symptoms that are similar to allergies or hay fever.
03:14 In order for viruses to evolve, they need to have random mutations. If the mutations increase virulence, these variants become deselected.
03:40 A virus is an obligate intracellular parasite. It requires your metabolic resources: macromolecules, cells, glucose, lipids, amino acids and more. It needs to reproduce and spread. Dead people do not spread a virus.
05:20 The infectious fatality rate for the Delta strain was .2% vs 1.1% the original version. It is becoming increasingly less virulent.
07:11 RNA viruses have a high error rate in mutations. SARS COV-2 tends to have the highest of the highest mutation rates.
07:55 More than 50 million infections of the current virus provide ample opportunity for rapid evolution and mutation.
11:50 Any viral variant showing a higher transmissibility will generally replace its less infectious forerunners. This continues until the virus is extinct.
12:40 Just because it is easy to catch does not mean that it is more damaging. Pathogenicity is not necessarily selected for, but transmissibility is. High virulence is a mal adaptation of viruses when they cross into a host into which they are not adapted.
13:20 The most successful viruses do not cause significant symptoms. A lightly effected person maintains active social contact and is a better spreader. An example is the low spread of the Ebola virus.
14:05 A successful virus exploits its host without putting itself in danger.
15:30 It is theorized that SARS SARS COV-2 could become a seasonal virus with little mortality. As more children become infected, they build their immune response.
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