History Suggests New Omicron Variant Is Likely Even More Mild: the law of declining virulence

Let’s review a the long-known law of declining virulence which describes how viruses and parasites evolve to become less virulent over time as they infect more hosts.

 

 

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References:

 

 

Brüssow, H. (2021). What we can learn from the dynamics of the 1889 “Russian flu” pandemic for the future trajectory of COVID-19. Microbial Biotechnology, 14(6), 2244–2253. http://doi.org/10.1111/1751-7915.13916

 

Sciences, P. M. H. A. P. O. T. L.,. (2012). Why do Parasites Harm Their Host? On the Origin and Legacy of Theobald Smith's‘ Law of Declining Virulence’—1900-1980. Jstor

Gaeta, G. (2021, September 19). Mass vaccination in a roaring pandemic.

Mass vaccination produces a reduction in virus circulation, but also evolutive pressure towards the appearance of virus-resistant strains. We discuss the balance between these two effects, in particular when the mass vaccination takes place in the middle of an epidemic period.

Alizon, S., & Sofonea, M. T. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 virulence evolution: Avirulence theory, immunity and trade-offs. Journal of Evolutionary Biology. 

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